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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Arizona Cardinals 22

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to ARI 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 37 for 12 yards (38-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model