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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to LA 19 for 14 yards (22-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.94 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model