Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(8:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to ARI 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 34 for 9 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model