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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short middle to 31-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.22 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model