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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Monday 2015-09-21 · 20:30 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYJ
72.8%
IND
27.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: +0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): +0.430 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.293 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Andrew Luck (IND) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 27
–
IND 21
Projected margin: NYJ by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYJ

Lorenzo Mauldin LB Out Concussion
Geno Smith QB Out Jaw
Darrin Walls CB Doubtful Hamstring
Antonio Cromartie CB Questionable Knee
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Groin
Stephen Bowen DE Probable Knee
Breno Giacomini T Probable Biceps
Brent Qvale T Probable Finger
Trevor Reilly LB Probable Finger
Devin Smith WR Probable Ribs
James Carpenter G Probable Back
Willie Colon G Probable Knee
Jaiquawn Jarrett S Probable Shoulder

IND

Darius Butler CB Out Hip
Gregory Toler CB Out Neck
Jonathan Newsome LB Questionable Hamstring
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Knee
Robert Mathis LB Questionable Achilles
Todd Herremans G Probable Shoulder
D'Qwell Jackson LB Probable Toe
Bjoern Werner LB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 20
–
IND 7

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:49 TD NYJ (6:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 87-E.Decker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 01:55 FG NYJ (1:55) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 10 – IND 0
  • Q4 10:16 TD IND (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – IND 6
  • Q4 06:27 TD NYJ (6:27) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-25-J.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined. NYJ 16 – IND 7
  • Q4 01:02 FG NYJ (1:02) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 20 – IND 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 49%

    (11:39) 4-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to IND 11, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (4:07) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:06) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to IND 41, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:42) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to NYJ 8, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 52%

    (13:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to IND 6, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to NYJ 38, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:11) 1-P.McAfee punts 42 yards to NYJ 29, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (1:55) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (:04) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to IND 49, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 59%

    (14:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to IND 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%

    (1:02) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.