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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 9 at the 41
New York Jets 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0
What Actually Happened
(13:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to IND 6, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.34 EP
Model's Pick
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.50 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.44 EP
KICK
-0.57 EP
- 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT
-0.63 EP
What Happened
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
