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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 1-P.McAfee punts 42 yards to NYJ 29, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.82 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP