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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 17

New York Jets 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model