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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 38

New York Jets 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to IND 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.56 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP