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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.42 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model