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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 84

New York Jets 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to IND 49, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 84, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 42, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP