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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 42

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 4-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to IND 11, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.19 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP