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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 30

New York Jets 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model