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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 81

New York Jets 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to IND 41, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.70 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 38, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model