Best Bets — Week 15

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

Model: JAX 85.0% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Model: SF 84.7% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Model: PHI 80.6% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Model: CHI 74.0% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Model: DAL 74.0% · strong edge

MIN offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Model: KC 71.0% · strong edge

KC offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Model: SEA 68.9% · clear edge

SEA defense: -0.234 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Model: HOU 67.8% · clear edge

HOU defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Model: NYG 67.7% · clear edge

NYG offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Model: LA 64.8% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.199 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Model: CIN 63.4% · clear edge

CIN defense: +0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)