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Best Bets — Week 16

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

LV @

HOU

Model: HOU 84.2% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.265 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

BUF @

CLE

Model: BUF 78.5% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

MIN @

NYG

Model: NYG 68.0% · clear edge

MIN offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

PHI @

WAS

Model: PHI 67.9% · clear edge

WAS defense: +0.221 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

PIT @

DET

Model: DET 62.9% · clear edge

DET offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

KC @

TEN

Model: KC 62.7% · clear edge

TEN offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)