Home

Best Bets — Week 10

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 WC DIV CON SB

LV @

DEN

Model: DEN 79.3% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

BAL @

MIN

Model: BAL 78.1% · strong edge

QB edge to BAL: J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.429 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.289 EPA/dropback

BUF @

MIA

Model: BUF 69.6% · clear edge

BUF offense: +0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

NO @

CAR

Model: CAR 66.7% · clear edge

NO offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

DET @

WAS

Model: DET 64.7% · clear edge

WAS defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

ARI @

SEA

Model: SEA 64.3% · clear edge

SEA defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

ATL @

IND

Model: IND 64.0% · clear edge

IND offense: +0.228 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

CLE @

NYJ

Model: NYJ 63.9% · clear edge

CLE offense: -0.182 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

LA @

Model: LA 62.5% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)