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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 16:25 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 14.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NE
19.9%
BUF
80.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.284 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.249 vs Drake Maye (NE) -0.032 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 19
–
BUF 30
Projected margin: BUF by 11 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NE

Jamycal Hasty RB Out Ankle
Marcus Jones CB Out Hip
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Hamstring
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee
Caedan Wallace T Questionable Ankle
Keion White DE Questionable Groin

BUF

Rasul Douglas CB Questionable Knee
Damar Hamlin S Questionable Rib
Matt Milano LB Questionable Biceps
Taylor Rapp S Questionable Neck
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Rib
Baylon Spector LB Questionable Calf
Dorian Williams LB Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 21
–
BUF 24

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:06 TD NE (12:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 14:21 TD NE (14:21) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BUF 0
  • Q2 12:05 TD BUF (12:05) (Shotgun) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – BUF 6
  • Q3 09:45 TD BUF (9:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – BUF 13
  • Q3 06:07 FG BUF (6:07) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NE 14 – BUF 17
  • Q4 10:17 TD BUF (10:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 3, RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at NE -1. TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – BUF 23
  • Q4 01:17 TD NE (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – BUF 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:23) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to NE 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-A.Erickson to NE 9 for no gain (89-J.Virgil).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-16-S.Takitaki. PENALTY on NE-27-M.Dial, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 22.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:59) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 24-D.Pettus. 24-D.Pettus up the middle to NE 25 for 2 yards (42-Do.Williams; 41-R.Gilliam).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:00) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to BUF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-97-T.Leo.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:22) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%

    (6:07) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 60%

    (11:07) 8-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:35) 8-S.Martin punts 37 yards to NE 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye right end to BUF 42 for 13 yards (39-C.Lewis).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.73 EP
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 85%

    (:10) 17-J.Allen left guard to NE 25 for 2 yards (48-J.Tavai; 33-A.Jennings).