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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 8-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.82 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP