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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 55

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye right end to BUF 42 for 13 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.87 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model