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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 24 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(:10) 17-J.Allen left guard to NE 25 for 2 yards (48-J.Tavai; 33-A.Jennings).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.03 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.73 EP