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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 64

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-16-S.Takitaki. PENALTY on NE-27-M.Dial, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 22.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 22, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP