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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to BUF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-97-T.Leo.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP