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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 77

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 24-D.Pettus. 24-D.Pettus up the middle to NE 25 for 2 yards (42-Do.Williams; 41-R.Gilliam).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.66 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model