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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to NE 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-A.Erickson to NE 9 for no gain (89-J.Virgil).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model