4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 14 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model