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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 20:20 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

GB
55.7%
SEA
44.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB on 3 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Out Knee
Javon Bullard S Out Ankle
Luke Musgrave TE Out Ankle
Corey Ballentine CB Questionable Knee

SEA

Tre Brown CB Out Hamstring
Jerrick Reed S Out Quadricep
Brady Russell TE Out Foot
K'Von Wallace S Out Ankle
Kenneth Walker RB Doubtful Calf
Artie Burns CB Doubtful Toe
Stone Forsythe T Doubtful Hand

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:23 TD GB (9:23) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 02:00 TD GB (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – SEA 0
  • Q2 13:03 FG SEA (13:03) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. GB 14 – SEA 3
  • Q2 09:25 FG GB (9:25) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 17 – SEA 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 17-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 20 – SEA 3
  • Q3 06:25 FG SEA (6:25) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. GB 20 – SEA 6
  • Q3 01:39 FG GB (1:39) 17-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 23 – SEA 6
  • Q4 11:23 TD SEA (11:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – SEA 12
  • Q4 05:05 TD GB (5:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to GB 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (13:03) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (9:25) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 17 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 51%

    (10:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to GB 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:55) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to GB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (6:25) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.51 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (1:39) 17-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to GB 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-J.Reed to GB 43 for 10 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to SEA 4, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-22-R.Rochell.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to GB 43, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to SEA 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to SEA 32 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to GB 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 16.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 62%

    (5:55) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to SEA 39 for no gain (55-D.Jones; 99-L.Williams).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to GB 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (1:54) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to SEA 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to SEA 32 for no gain (22-R.Rochell).