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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 5

Green Bay Packers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 17-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +4.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.51 EP