Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 20

(10:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to GB 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP

KICK -0.43 EP

51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
49% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model