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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to GB 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model