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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model