Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Green Bay Packers 23

(9:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to GB 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.17 EP
54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model