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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(5:55) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to SEA 39 for no gain (55-D.Jones; 99-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.16 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model