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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model