Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.138 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.099 EPA/dropback
- SF defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- CHI on 3 more days rest than SF
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
CHI
SF
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:25 TD SF (12:25) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SF 6
- Q1 01:43 TD SF (1:43) 31-I.Guerendo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-99-G.Dexter was injured during the play. CHI 0 – SF 13
- Q2 07:46 TD SF (7:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SF 20
- Q2 01:53 FG SF (1:53) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. CHI 0 – SF 24
- Q3 06:01 TD CHI (6:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SF 24
- Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SF 30
- Q4 11:54 TD CHI (11:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – SF 31
- Q4 05:19 TD SF (5:19) (Shotgun) 32-P.Taylor up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – SF 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(10:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to SF 13, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.
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Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%
(6:17) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 39-J.Blackwell.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 17 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:01) 19-T.Taylor punts 60 yards to SF 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 7 yards (39-J.Blackwell).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to SF 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 29 for 8 yards (92-D.Hardy).
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%
(9:47) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CHI 22 for 1 yard (91-Ch.Williams).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(5:44) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to SF 19, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 7 yards (30-T.Moore).
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(1:53) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to SF 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 14 yards (36-J.Owens). PENALTY on SF-22-I.Yiadom, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at SF 12.
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Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(5:07) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to CHI 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 39-J.Blackwell pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (41-J.Graham).
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%
(7:03) 32-P.Taylor right tackle to CHI 19 for 6 yards (29-T.Stevenson; 36-J.Owens).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 78 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:42) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to SF 35, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing. PENALTY on CHI-30-T.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.