Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 77

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 21

(5:44) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to SF 19, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 7 yards (30-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.18 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model