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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to SF 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 29 for 8 yards (92-D.Hardy).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model