Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 89

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(4:01) 19-T.Taylor punts 60 yards to SF 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 7 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.01 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model