4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 5, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP