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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 32-P.Taylor right tackle to CHI 19 for 6 yards (29-T.Stevenson; 36-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model