Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Chicago Bears 6

(5:07) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to CHI 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 39-J.Blackwell pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (41-J.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model