Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 78

Chicago Bears 13 – San Francisco 49ers 38

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to SF 35, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing. PENALTY on CHI-30-T.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.54 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model