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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CHI 22 for 1 yard (91-Ch.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model