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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Thursday 2024-11-28 · 20:20 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🥶 Cold Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIA
36.6%
GB
63.4%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.183 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.139 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIA

Tyus Bowser LB Out Knee
Kendall Fuller CB Out Concussion
Anthony Walker LB Out Hamstring
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Out Knee
Edgerrin Cooper LB Out Hamstring
Romeo Doubs WR Out Concussion
Josh Myers C Questionable Pectoral
John FitzPatrick TE Questionable Back
Isaiah McDuffie LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
GB 30

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:05 TD GB (12:05) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. MIA 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 00:59 TD GB (:59) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 08:47 FG MIA (8:47) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – GB 14
  • Q2 01:42 TD GB (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – GB 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG GB (:03) 17-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. MIA 3 – GB 24
  • Q3 07:46 FG GB (7:46) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. MIA 3 – GB 27
  • Q3 02:48 TD MIA (2:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – GB 27
  • Q4 05:06 FG GB (5:06) 17-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. MIA 11 – GB 30
  • Q4 03:08 TD MIA (3:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – GB 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%

    (10:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at GB 9 for 16 yards (21-E.Stokes).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (8:47) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 43%

    (6:43) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to MIA 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington to MIA 16 for 10 yards (45-Er.Wilson). PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 11.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to GB 38, Center-46-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 59%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 28-D.Achane.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to GB 22, Center-46-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:46) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (4:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith to GB 30 for 16 yards (29-X.McKinney).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%

    (:43) 19-D.Whelan punts 35 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (9:39) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at GB 7 for -6 yards (7-Q.Walker). Penalty on MIA-74-L.Eichenberg, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (5:06) 17-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (2:05) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith to MIA 36 for 11 yards (33-E.Williams; 7-Q.Walker).