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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 30 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model