Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 3 – Green Bay Packers 24

(13:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to GB 22, Center-46-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.50 EP
61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model