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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 14 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to MIA 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington to MIA 16 for 10 yards (45-Er.Wilson). PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 11.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP