Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

(3:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to GB 38, Center-46-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model