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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 3 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith to GB 30 for 16 yards (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.90 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model