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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 27 – Miami Dolphins 11

What Actually Happened

(:43) 19-D.Whelan punts 35 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP